Zeus Computer Chips, Inc., used to have major contracts to produce the Centrino-type chips. The market has been declining during the past three years because of the dual-core chips, which it cannot produce, so Zeus has the unpleasant task of forecasting next year. The task is unpleasant because the firm has not been able to find replacement chips for its production lines. Here is demand over the past 12 quarters: TWO YEARS AGO LAST YEAR THIS YEAR UNITS 4,805 3,505 4,305 3,005 UNITS 3,505 2,705 3,490 2,405 UNITS 3,195 II IV 2,105 2.705 1.705 II IV IV Use the decomposition technique to forecast demand for the next four quarters. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) Period Forecast (Units) II II IV II 2-==>

Zeus Computer Chips, Inc., used to have major contracts to produce the Centrino-type chips. The market has been declining during the past three years because of the dual-core chips, which it cannot produce, so Zeus has the unpleasant task of forecasting next year. The task is unpleasant because the firm has not been able to find replacement chips for its production lines. Here is demand over the past 12 quarters: TWO YEARS AGO LAST YEAR THIS YEAR UNITS 4,805 3,505 4,305 3,005 UNITS 3,505 2,705 3,490 2,405 UNITS 3,195 II IV 2,105 2.705 1.705 II IV IV Use the decomposition technique to forecast demand for the next four quarters. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) Period Forecast (Units) II II IV II 2-==>

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 46P

See similar textbooks

Similar questions

Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?
Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?
Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?
Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. Ethical decisions that affect a buyers ethical perspective usually involve the organizational environment, cultural environment, personal environment, and industry environment. Analyze this scenario using these four variables.
Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?
Zeus Computer Chips, Incorporated used to have major contracts to produce the Centrino-type chips. The market has been declining during the past three years because of the quad-core chips, which it cannot produce, so Zeus has the unpleasant task of forecasting next year. The task is unpleasant because the firm has not been able to find replacement chips for its product lines. Here is demand over the past 12 quarters: QUARTER TWOYEARS AGO DEMAND QUARTER LASTYEAR DEMAND QUARTER THISYEAR DEMAND 1 4,800 1 3,500 1 3,200 2 3,500 2 2,700 2 2,100 3 4,300 3 3,500 3 2,700 4 3,000 4 2,400 4 1,700 Use the regression and seasonal indexes to forecast demand for the next four quarters. Note: Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 2 decimal places. Period Forecast 1 2 3 4
Zeus Computer Chips Inc. used to have major contracts to produce the Centrino-type chips. The market has been declining during the past three years because of the dual-core chips, which it cannot produce, so Zeus has the unpleasant task of forecasting next year. The task is unpleasant because the firm has not been able to find replacement chips for its product lines. Here is demand over the past 12 quarters:2007 2008 2009I 4,800 I 3,500 I 3,200II 3,500 II 2,700 II 2,100III 4,300 III 3,500 III 2,700IV 3,000 IV 2,400 IV 1,700Use the decomposition technique to forecast the four quarters of 2010.
Assuming the following deseasonalized demand, what would your Level and Trend FORECAST factors be for future deseasonalized demand estimates? (Hint, you might want to use excel for this) period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 13673 6640 2737 3486 141 13186) 5448 3485 7728 16591 8236 3316 855358 11 12 13 15 16 17 18 19 Demand Deseasonalized D₁ Demand D 3200 7658 4420 2384 3654 8680 5795 1953 4742 20 4472 4657 4956 5074 5157 5917 6646 6850 6791 6573 6363 6308 6932 7887 8662 8989 O Level-4696 Trend-343 O Level-3612. Trend-264 O Level 3629; Trend-263 O Level-2528: Trend-185
Demand for stereo headphones and MP3 players for joggers has caused Nina Industries to grow almost 50 percent over the past year. The number of joggers continues to expand, so Nina expects demand for headsets to also expand, because, as yet, no safety laws have been passed to prevent joggers from wearing them. Demand for the players for last year was as follows: a. Using linear regression analysis, what would you estimate demand to be for each month next year? (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) b. To be reasonably confident of meeting demand, Nina decides to use 2 standard errors of estimate for safety. How many additional units should be held to meet this level of confidence? (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answer to the nearest whole number.)
A manager uses a trend equation plus quarterly relatives to predict demand. Quarter relatives are SR1 = 0.9, SR2 = 0.95, SR3 = 1.05, and SR4 = 1.1. The trend equation is: Ft = 6 + 4t. Over the past nine quarters, demand has been as follows: Period, t: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Demand: 11 15 17 22 28 32 36 39 43 Compute the MAD and tracking signal for each period. (Negative values should be indicated by a minus sign. Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 3 decimal places.) Period, t Demand MAD Tracking signal 1 11 2 15 3 17 4 22 5 28 6 32 7 36 8 39 9 43
Using the correlation coefficient for regression, what is the relationship between BTS's TV Appearance and the demand for Korean Merchandise? Your answer We can see the impact of South Korea's cultural economy exporting pop culture, entertainment, music, TV dramas, and movies on Filipino spending patterns. Based on the table below we can see that: BTS TV Appearances (per 3 week) 7 Demand for Korean Merchandise (in thousand) 4 Your answer 5 7 8 6 9 8 6 5 11 Determine the demand for Korean goods. If the number of BTS TV appearances per week reaches 10, perform a regression analysis.
Tucson Machinery, Incorporated, manufactures numerically controlled machines, which sell for an average price of $0.5 million each. Sales for these NCMs for the past two years were as follows: Use Exhibit 3.10. QUARTER LAST YEAR QUANTITY (UNITS) QUARTER THIS YEAR QUANTITY (UNITS) 1 12 1 16 2 18 2 24 3 26 3 28 4 16 4 18 Find a line using regression in Excel. Note: Round your answers to 3 decimal places. Find the trend and seasonal indexes. Note: Round your answers to 3 decimal places. Forecast sales for next year. Note: Round your answers to 2 decimal places.