3. A toy manufacturer makes stuffed kittens and puppies which have relatively lifelike motions. There are three different mechanisms that can be installed in these "pets." These toys will sell for the same price regardless of the mechanism installed, but each mechanism has its own variable cost and setup cost. Profit, therefore, is dependent upon the choice of mechanism and upon the level of demand. The manufacturer has in hand a forecast of demand that suggests a 0.2 probability of light demand, a 0.45 probability of moderate demand, and a probability of 0.35 of heavy demand. Payoffs for each mechanism-demand combination appear in the table below. Wind-up action $250,000 Electronic action Demand Light Pneumatic action $90,000 -$100,000 Moderate 400,000 440,000 400,000 Неavy 650,000 740,000 780,000 Construct the appropriate decision tree to analyze this problem. Use standard symbols for the tree. Analyze the tree to select the optimal decision for the manufacturer.

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
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3. A toy manufacturer makes stuffed kittens and puppies which have relatively lifelike motions. There are three
different mechanisms that can be installed in these "pets." These toys will sell for the same price regardless of
the mechanism installed, but each mechanism has its own variable cost and setup cost. Profit, therefore, is
dependent upon the choice of mechanism and upon the level of demand. The manufacturer has in hand a
forecast of demand that suggests a 0.2 probability of light demand, a 0.45 probability of moderate demand,
and a probability of 0.35 of heavy demand. Payoffs for each mechanism-demand combination appear in the
table below.
Wind-up action
Pneumatic action
Electronic action
Demand
Light
Moderate
$250,000
$90,000
-$100,000
400,000
440,000
400,000
Heavy
650,000
740,000
780,000
Construct the appropriate decision tree to analyze this problem. Use standard symbols for the tree.
Analyze the tree to select the optimal decision for the manufacturer.
Transcribed Image Text:3. A toy manufacturer makes stuffed kittens and puppies which have relatively lifelike motions. There are three different mechanisms that can be installed in these "pets." These toys will sell for the same price regardless of the mechanism installed, but each mechanism has its own variable cost and setup cost. Profit, therefore, is dependent upon the choice of mechanism and upon the level of demand. The manufacturer has in hand a forecast of demand that suggests a 0.2 probability of light demand, a 0.45 probability of moderate demand, and a probability of 0.35 of heavy demand. Payoffs for each mechanism-demand combination appear in the table below. Wind-up action Pneumatic action Electronic action Demand Light Moderate $250,000 $90,000 -$100,000 400,000 440,000 400,000 Heavy 650,000 740,000 780,000 Construct the appropriate decision tree to analyze this problem. Use standard symbols for the tree. Analyze the tree to select the optimal decision for the manufacturer.
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