What is the meaning of sensitivity analysis? What are the two approaches one can take to determine how sensitive an optimal solution is to changes. What effect do changes on the right-hand side of the equation have on the final answer? What type of resource is affected by the right-hand side of the equation.
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What is the meaning of sensitivity analysis? What are the two approaches one can take to determine how sensitive an optimal solution is to changes. What effect do changes on the right-hand side of the equation have on the final answer? What type of resource is affected by the right-hand side of the equation.
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- Play Things is developing a new Lady Gaga doll. The company has made the following assumptions: The doll will sell for a random number of years from 1 to 10. Each of these 10 possibilities is equally likely. At the beginning of year 1, the potential market for the doll is two million. The potential market grows by an average of 4% per year. The company is 95% sure that the growth in the potential market during any year will be between 2.5% and 5.5%. It uses a normal distribution to model this. The company believes its share of the potential market during year 1 will be at worst 30%, most likely 50%, and at best 60%. It uses a triangular distribution to model this. The variable cost of producing a doll during year 1 has a triangular distribution with parameters 15, 17, and 20. The current selling price is 45. Each year, the variable cost of producing the doll will increase by an amount that is triangularly distributed with parameters 2.5%, 3%, and 3.5%. You can assume that once this change is generated, it will be the same for each year. You can also assume that the company will change its selling price by the same percentage each year. The fixed cost of developing the doll (which is incurred right away, at time 0) has a triangular distribution with parameters 5 million, 7.5 million, and 12 million. Right now there is one competitor in the market. During each year that begins with four or fewer competitors, there is a 25% chance that a new competitor will enter the market. Year t sales (for t 1) are determined as follows. Suppose that at the end of year t 1, n competitors are present (including Play Things). Then during year t, a fraction 0.9 0.1n of the company's loyal customers (last year's purchasers) will buy a doll from Play Things this year, and a fraction 0.2 0.04n of customers currently in the market ho did not purchase a doll last year will purchase a doll from Play Things this year. Adding these two provides the mean sales for this year. Then the actual sales this year is normally distributed with this mean and standard deviation equal to 7.5% of the mean. a. Use @RISK to estimate the expected NPV of this project. b. Use the percentiles in @ RISKs output to find an interval such that you are 95% certain that the companys actual NPV will be within this interval.It costs a pharmaceutical company 75,000 to produce a 1000-pound batch of a drug. The average yield from a batch is unknown but the best case is 90% yield (that is, 900 pounds of good drug will be produced), the most likely case is 85% yield, and the worst case is 70% yield. The annual demand for the drug is unknown, with the best case being 20,000 pounds, the most likely case 17,500 pounds, and the worst case 10,000 pounds. The drug sells for 125 per pound and leftover amounts of the drug can be sold for 30 per pound. To maximize annual expected profit, how many batches of the drug should the company produce? You can assume that it will produce the batches only once, before demand for the drug is known.Why is it important to do a sensitivity analysis after a solution that is optimal under the assumed parameter values has been found?
- A restaurant wants to forecast its weekly sales. Historical data (in dollars) for 15 weeks are shown in this Excel file (also shown in Problem 6 on page 243 in the textbook). Answer the following questions related to this information: What is the MSE for the two- and three-period moving average models? Compare the results. Find the best number of periods for the moving average model based on MSE.Understanding Input and Output correlation Write the equation that is at the core of a Six Sigma organization. Are the key business objectives (or measures) considered the input or output variables of a process? What variable do we use to represent these measures? Are the controllable and non-controllable variables that affect the key business objectives considered the input or output variables of a process? What variable do we use to represent them?.A 45 kW rated solar power system has its power output and the Solar irradiance on the PV system measured during daylight hours over a day. Based on the following data, create a scatter plot of the power output of the PV system vs the solar irradiance and comment on the relationship between the two. Based on the data, can you tell which season this day was in? Solar Irradiance on the PV system (kW/m²) 0 0.079 0.333 0.571 0.751 0.86 0.914 0.93 0.904 0.803 0.606 0.345 0.054 Power output from the PV system (kW) 0 3.098 12.438 20.124 25.703 28.498 29.587 29.69 28.798 26.264 20.434 12.223 2
- This question has multiple correct answers. Pick all the correct answers. If you had to present quantitative data, select all the ones you can use to do so. Group of answer choices position shape different colors size color intensity lengthMike Thatcher is a sales manager for an automobile dealership in Alberta. Mike earns a bonus each year based on revenue generated by the number of vehicles sold in the year less related warranty expenses. The quality of automobiles sold each year seems to vary since the warranty experience related to vehicles sold is highly variable. The actual warranty expenses have varied over the past 10 years from a low of 3% of an automobile’s selling price to a high of 10%. In the past, Mike has tended toward estimating warranty expenses on the high end just to be prudent. It is the end of the year and once again he must work with the dealership’s accountant in arriving at the warranty expense accrual for the cars sold this year. Required 1. Does the warranty accrual decision present any kind of ethical dilemma for Mike Thatcher? 2. Since the warranty experience is not constant, what percent do you think Mike should choose for this year? Justify your response.A manufacturing engineer is studying the dimensional variability of a particular component that is produced on three machines. Each machine has two spindles, and four components are randomly selected from each spindle. The results follow. Analyze the data, assuming that machines and spindles are fixed factors. Machine 1 Machine 2 Machine 3 Spindle 1 1 1 12 8 14 12 14 16 9 9 15 10 10 15 11 10 13 11 12 15 12 8 14 13 11 14 Calculate the Determination Coefficient (as percentage) for the Model obtained. Use 2 decimal Digits Respuesta: 2.
- A firm has modeled its experience with industrial accidents and found that the number of accidents per year is related to the number of employees by the regression equation Y = 6.6 + 0.098*X. R-Square is 0.72. The regression is based on 20 annual observations. The firm intends to employ 480 workers next year. How many accidents do you project? 47.04 accidents 8.66 accidents 53.64 accidents 72% of the 480 workers 28.56 accidentsA company is operating in two unrelated businesses. The first one is making common salt, which is sold in one kilogram consumer packs. The second business is making readymade garments. The owner of the businesses has decided to implement Materials Requirement Planning (MRP) in one of the two businesses, which is likely to give him greater benefit. Assuming that the current turnover and profits of both the units are comparable, compare the relative benefits and limitations of Materials Requirement Planning (MRP) for these two businesses.A careful analysis of the cost of operating an automobile was conducted by accounting manager Dia Bandaly. The following model was developed: y = 3,600+ 0.16x, where y is the annual cost and x is the miles driven. a) If the car is driven 15,000 miles this year, the forecasted cost of operating this automobile = $ b) If the car is driven 26,000 miles this year, the forecasted cost of operating this automobile = $ (enter your response as a whole number). (enter your response as a whole number).