(c) Use a = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts for the time series. Week Time Series Forecast Value 1 18 2 11 m 3 15 4 10 5 16 6 13 Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) MSE = What is the forecast for week 7? (Round your answer to two decimal places.) (d) Compare the three-week moving average approach with the exponential smoothing approach using a = 0.2. Which appears to provide more accurate forecasts based on MSE? Explain. The three-week moving average provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the smoothing approach. The three-week moving average provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the smoothing approach. The exponential smoothing using a = 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the three-week moving average approach. The exponential smoothing using a = 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the three-week moving average approach. (e) Use a smoothing constant of a = 0.4 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts. Time Series Week Value 1 18 2 11 3 15 4 10 5 16 6 13 Forecast Does a smoothing constant of 0.2 or 0.4 appear to provide more accurate forecasts based on MSE? Explain. The exponential smoothing using a = 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the exponential smoothing using a = 0.4. The exponential smoothing using a = 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the exponential smoothing using a = 0.4. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 10 16 13 Value 18 11 15 (a) Construct a time series plot. Time Series Value 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 20 18 16 14 12 10 20 20 18 16 12 18 wwww. 14 12 10 8- о 0- 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Week Week Week Week What type of pattern exists in the data? ○ The data appear to follow a seasonal pattern. ○ The data appear to follow a horizontal pattern. ○ The data appear to follow a cyclical pattern. ○ The data appear to follow a trend pattern. (b) Develop the three-week moving average forecasts for this time series. (Round your answers to two decimal places.) Week Time Series Value Forecast 1 18 2 11 3 15 4 10 5 16 6 13 Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) MSE = What is the forecast for week 7? 13