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- Play Things is developing a new Lady Gaga doll. The company has made the following assumptions: The doll will sell for a random number of years from 1 to 10. Each of these 10 possibilities is equally likely. At the beginning of year 1, the potential market for the doll is two million. The potential market grows by an average of 4% per year. The company is 95% sure that the growth in the potential market during any year will be between 2.5% and 5.5%. It uses a normal distribution to model this. The company believes its share of the potential market during year 1 will be at worst 30%, most likely 50%, and at best 60%. It uses a triangular distribution to model this. The variable cost of producing a doll during year 1 has a triangular distribution with parameters 15, 17, and 20. The current selling price is 45. Each year, the variable cost of producing the doll will increase by an amount that is triangularly distributed with parameters 2.5%, 3%, and 3.5%. You can assume that once this change is generated, it will be the same for each year. You can also assume that the company will change its selling price by the same percentage each year. The fixed cost of developing the doll (which is incurred right away, at time 0) has a triangular distribution with parameters 5 million, 7.5 million, and 12 million. Right now there is one competitor in the market. During each year that begins with four or fewer competitors, there is a 25% chance that a new competitor will enter the market. Year t sales (for t 1) are determined as follows. Suppose that at the end of year t 1, n competitors are present (including Play Things). Then during year t, a fraction 0.9 0.1n of the company's loyal customers (last year's purchasers) will buy a doll from Play Things this year, and a fraction 0.2 0.04n of customers currently in the market ho did not purchase a doll last year will purchase a doll from Play Things this year. Adding these two provides the mean sales for this year. Then the actual sales this year is normally distributed with this mean and standard deviation equal to 7.5% of the mean. a. Use @RISK to estimate the expected NPV of this project. b. Use the percentiles in @ RISKs output to find an interval such that you are 95% certain that the companys actual NPV will be within this interval.The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?Through forecasting, organizations attempt to adapt to or change the future as predicted through planning. True False
- The treasury manager of a chain of clothing stores wants to develop a medium-term forecast. Management plans to open two new stores, and anticipates same-store sales to increase by 15%. Which of the following items can be predicted with the highest degree of certainty? Group of answer choices Taxes on the exercise of stock options fixed bond interest payments new product sales new franchise fees Loss exposures related to treasury management may include which of the following? Group of answer choices losses due to faulty investment of cash reserves product safety recalls litigation costs for intellectual property infringement bank consolidationThe long-term financial forecast plays a crucial part in the company's long-term strategic plan. True or False True False 25 28 étv N 4In contrast to causal techniques, what are the fundamental assumptions made when time series predicting techniques?
- Discuss the following statement: “Economists are predicting that interest rates willcontinue to be under 10 percent for at least 15 years.”A random sample of 10,000 customers was selected over a six month period. The data provides information on their current status with the bank as well as 12 additional attributes describing their demographic and banking information. what are the key predictors the bank should be aware of with their customers? Examples are included, but not limited to:Are female customers leaving more than males? Is there indication of customer departures associated with specific countries?Is there evidence of salary associated departures? what is an appropiate marketing strategy to attract and retain long term customersWhen a new business is started, or a patent idea needs funding, venture capitalists or investment bankers will want to see a business plan that includes forecast information related to profit and loss statements. What type of forecasting information do you think would the investors be looking for? Why?
- The following table shows a tool and die company's quarterly sales for the current year. What sales would you predict for the first quarter of next year? Quarter relatives are SR= .94, SR,- 97, SR= 97, and SR, 112. For the trend forecast (T), add the difference between quarter 3 and quarter 4's deseasonalized sales data to the deseasonalized quarter 4 sales. (Round your answer to 1 decimal place.) Quarter Sales 84.6 83.0 84.7 108.0Suppose a firm has had the following historic sales figures. Year: 2016 2017 2018 2019 Sales $3,400,000 $4,650,000 $3,300,000 $2,900,000 What would be the forecast for next year's sales using the naïve approach? Answer is complete but not entirely correct. Next year's sales $ 3,550,000 2020 $3,500,000Sales for the past 12 months at computer success are given here: January 3,000 July 6,300 february 3,400 August 7,200 March 3,700 Sept 6,400 April 4,100 Oct 4,600 May 4,700 Nov 4,200 June 5,700 December 3,900 a. Use a 3-month moving average to forecast the sales for the months May through December b. Use a 4-month moving average to forecast the sales for the months May through December C. Compare the performance of the two methods by using the mean absolute deviation as the performance criterion. Which method would you recommend? d. Compare the performance of the two methods by using the mean absolute percent error as the performance criterion. Which method would you recommend? e. Compare the performance of the two methods by using the mean squared error as the performance criterion. Which method would you recommend?