How would you go about attempting to come upwith the probability of a “super-event” or the probability of a“unique-event?” What factors would you consider?
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How would you go about attempting to come up
with the probability of a “super-event” or the probability of a
“unique-event?” What factors would you consider?
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- How would you go about calculating the likelihood of a "super-event" or a "unique event?" What variables would you take into account ?From a risk management perspective, what are possible interpretations of 'probability'?What are the advanatges and limitations of using each Quantitaive Risk Assessments such as Bayesian Network, Fault Tree Analysis, Event Tree Analysis and Bow Tie Analysis in the oil refinery storage industry?
- Decision Tree Analysis. You are considering the decision to purchase a machine for internal production or to subcontract the work to an external source. The following information has been provided by your financial managers: Cost to purchase the machine—$35,000 Cost to subcontract the work—$5,000 Probability of a good market = 70% Probability of a poor market = 30% Reward if the prediction occurs: In the purchase machine decision good market scenario—$80,000; in the poor market scenario—$30,000 In the Subcontract decision good market scenario—$50,000; in the poor market scenario—$15,000 1. What is the expected value of the decision to purchase the machine?Exclusive Footwear Ltd experiencing profit declining in recent times... In the light of the above research, suggest a list of variables (e.g. IV, DV, or MV), develop conceptual model, and discuss their nature and potential relation to each other with proper justification. Develop relevant hypothesis for the variables.Use the following information to answer multiple-choice Questions 21 to 30. A fibre glass company is considering the possibility of introducing a new product. Because of the expense involved in developing the initial moulds and acquiring the necessary equipment to produce fibreglass, it has decided to conduct a pilot study to make sure that the market will be adequate. They estimate that the pilot study will cost £12,000. Furthermore, the pilot study can be either successful or unsuccessful. The basic decisions are to build a large manufacturing facility, a small manufacturing facility, or no facility at all. With a favourable market, the company can expect to make £100,000 from the large facility or £60,000 from the smaller facility. If the market is unfavourable, however, they estimate that they would lose £40,000 with a large facility, while they would lose only £30,000 with the small facility. The company estimates that the probability of a favourable market given a successful…
- 3. The manager for a manufacturing company must recommend whether to construct a large plant, construct a small plant or do nothing. He estimates the long-run profits in $ as follows: State of Nature Alternative Good Average Poor Market($) Market ($) Market ($) Construct a 100,000 35,000 -60,000 large plant Construct a 75,000 25,000 -40,000 small plant Do nothing -5,000 0 0 Probability 25% 50% 25% Solve using: A. Expected Opportunity Loss B. Expected Value of Perfect Informationhow is a time series module and a causal model used in a business?What is the significance of "risk velocity" and how can it influence decision-making in risk management?
- How do I get the 0.20 for probability in excel?Doing nothing would yield how much profit if favorable market conditions prevail according to the following profit decision table? Alternative Favorable Market Do Nothing $27,000 $12,000 $0 -$15,000 $27,000 Unfavorable Market -$15,000The White Fish company is launching its new food for sale in supermarkets throughout Illinois. The sales department is convinced that its spicy fish dip will be a great success. The marketing department is considering an intensive advertising campaign. The advertising campaign will cost $1,900,000 and if successful (70% chance) produce $9,600,000 in added revenue. If the campaign is less successful (30% chance), the added revenue is estimated at only $4.200,000. If no advertising is used, the revenue is estimated at $6,500,000 if customers are receptive (with probability 0.75) and $3.200,000 with probability 0.25 if they are not receptive. a. Draw the associated decision tree. b. Roll Back Tree: Should White Fish invest in an intensive advertising campaign? c. Perform sensitivity analysis on probability of successful advertising campaign, which is now 0.7. Detemine the range of the probability of success for which the current decision is still the best choice. d. Perform sensitivity…