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Jones Consulting is deciding where to place a new office. The candidate cities are Chicago and Houston. A partially completed Factor Rating worksheet follows:
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- Q1: Income at the architectural firm Spraggins and Yunes for the period February to July was as follows: Month February March April May June July 72.8 Income (in $ 70.0 thousand) 68.5 64.5 71.7 71.3 Use trend-adjusted exponential smoothing to forecast the firm's August income. Assume that the initial forecast average for February is $65,000 and the initial trend adjustment is 0. The smoothing constants selected are a = .1 and B =.2.Seneca Hill Winery recently purchased land for the purpose of establishing a new vineyard. Management is considering two varieties of white grapes for the new vineyard: Chardonnay and Riesling. The Chardonnay grapes would be used to produce a dry Chardonnay wine, and the Riesling grapes would be used to produce a semidry Riesling wine. It takes approximately four years from the time of planting before new grapes can be harvested. This length of time creates a great deal of uncertainty concerning future demand and makes the decision concerning the type of grapes to plant difficult. Three possibilities are being considered: Chardonnay grapes only; Riesling grapes only; and both Chardonnay and Riesling grapes. Seneca management decided that for planning purposes it would be adequate to consider only two demand possibilities for each type of wine: strong or weak. With two possibilities for each type of wine it was necessary to assess four probabilities. With the help of some forecasts in…5. Avery produces hard drives for major computer/laptop manufacturers. The market has been decreasing over the past three years due to the solid-state drives. Using the past three years of data, Avery would like to forecast the sales for the next fiscal year for each quarter to determine whether it needs to decrease the production capacity for traditional hard drives. Derive the forecast by computing trend on seasonalized data. Quarter Sales (2017) Sales (2018) Sales (2019) 1 4,800 3,400 4,200 3,200 3,600 2,600 3,500 3,300 2,200 2,900 2,000 4 2,300 6. Answer Question 5 by computing trend on deseasonalized data of Avery's last three years of sales.
- Suppose these data show the number of gallons of gasoline sold by a gasoline distributor in Bennington, Vermont, over the past 12 weeks. Sales (1,000s of gallons) Week 1 17 2 21 3 19 23 5 18 6 16 7 21 8 19 9 23 10 21 11 16 12 23 (a) Using a weight of - for the most recent observation, for the second most recent observation, and - for third most recent observation, compute a three-week weighted moving average for the time series. (Round your answers to two decimal places.) Time Series Value Weighted Moving Average Forecast Week 1. 17 2 21 19 4 23 5 18 6 16 7 21Calculate MSE for the 4 periods for which the actual and forecasted number of customers given in the table below: Forecasted Actual Number Period Number of Error of Customers Customers 1 1,975 2,000 2 2,050 2,025 3 1,925 1,975 4 2,075 2,025 390.63 37.5 6,250 True1,562.5body de: A manager wants to choose one of two forecasting alternatives: moving average and exponential smoothing. Each alternative was tested using historical data. The resulting forecast errors for the two are shown in the table. Period (t) Forecasting Errors using Moving Average Forecasting Errors using Exponential Smoothing 1 3 4 2 3 -2 2 -3 3 4 2 -1 5 2 3 (a) Calculate MAD for Moving Average Method and Exponential Smoothing Method (b) Calculate MSE for Moving Average Method and Exponential Smoothing Method 6 4 5 (c) Based on Part (a) and Part (b), which forecasting method (Moving Average or Exponential Smoothing) should be used in this problem? Please explain your reasons.
- . 4.5 The Carbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest partly on the antici- pated mileage to be driven next year. The miles driven during the past 5 years are as follows: YEAR MILEAGE 1. 3,000 4,000 3,400 4. 3,800 5. 3,700 a) Forecast the mileage for next year (6th year) using a 2-year moving average. b) Find the MAD based on the 2-year moving average. (Hint. You will have only 3 years of matched data.) c) Use a weighted 2-year moving average with weights of .4 and 6 to forecast next year's mileage. (The weight of .6 is for the most recent year.) What MAD results from using this approach to forecasting? (Ilint: You will have only 3 years of matched data.) d) Compute the forecast for year 6 using exponential smoothing, an initial forecast for year of 3,000 miles, and a .5. Px1:46 口 Forecasting Assignment 1. The department manager using a combination of methods has forecast sales of toasters at a local department store. Calculate the MAD for the manager's forecast. Compare the manager's forecast against a naive forecast. Which is better? Manager's Forecast Month Unit Sales January February 52 61 March 73 April Мay 79 66 June 51 July August September 47 50 44 55 30 52 October 55 42 November 74 60 December 125 75 2. The last four weekly values of sales were 80, 100, 105, and 90 units. The last four forecasts (for the same four weeks) were 60, 80, 95, and 75 units. Calculate MAD, MSE, and MAPE for these four weeks. Sales Forecast Error Error squared Pct. error 80 60 20 400 .25 100 80 20 400 .20 105 95 10 100 .095 90 75 15 225 .167 AA A online.saskpolytech.caThe following table and plot show a variable "y" and the results of a model built to forecast its behavior. O a. O b. OC. Od. Actual @ 20 2.7 1129 43 3.5 5,8 4.6 Forecast MAE 0.083 Calculate the models MAE, MSE and MAPE MAE 1.150 MAE 1.886 1.1 3.9 MAE 1.150 4 MAE 1.271 3.6 4.8 4.7 6.0 6.3 90 MSE 1.445 MSE 1.445 MSE 6.909 MSE 1.445 MSE 1.810 MAPE 0.019 MAPE 0.321 MAPE 0.321 MAPE 0.431 # MAPE 0.418 Time Step Actual Forecast
- 3. A large Portland manufacturing would like to forecast the monthly demand for a piece of pollutioncontrol equipment. Suppose the monthly sales figures for the past five months have been as follows:Month 1 2 3 4 5Actual Demand 14 17 20 21 25a. Make a forecast for 6th month using a three-period moving average (MA). What would be the forecastfor 6th month?b. The manager would like to use simple exponential smoothing to forecast. Use alpha = 0.25. Whatwould be the forecast for 6th month?c. Find the better forecast out of Moving Average and Simple Exponential SmoothingSeneca Hill Winery recently purchased land for the purpose of establishing a new vineyard. Management is considering two varieties of white grapes for the new vineyard: Chardonnay and Riesling. The Chardonnay grapes would be used to produce a dry Chardonnay wine, and the Riesling grapes would be used to produce a semidry Riesling wine. It takes approximately four years from the time of planting before new grapes can be harvested. This length of time creates a great deal of uncertainty concerning future demand and makes the decision concerning the type of grapes to plant difficult. Three possibilities are being considered: Chardonnay grapes only; Riesling grapes only; and both Chardonnay and Riesling grapes. Seneca management decided that for planning purposes it would be adequate to consider only two demand possibilities for each type of wine: strong or weak. With two possibilities for each type of wine it was necessary to assess four probabilities. With the help of some forecasts in…Q3. Find forecasted value for 2017 using a = 0.5 and a = 0.7 using exponential smoothing method. Which a is better (10 Years Sales Forecasted sale 2012 25 2013 17 2014 2015 30 2016 27 2017 21