Determine the two best decision alternatives by a pessimistic decision maker. Decision dl d2 d3 d4 d2 and d4 d1 and d4 Od1 and d2 d3 and d4 States of Nature sl 320 280 d1 and d3 170 450 $2 425 -160 100 220 83 -150 160 325 -175
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- A decision tree is a graphic display of the decision process that indicates decision alternatives, states of nature and their respective probabilities, and payoffs for each combination of alternative and states of nature. O True O False * Previous Next ► MacBook Air 000 000 DD F7 セゴ F5 $ & レ 9 * 00The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): Decision State of Nature Alternative Low Demand (S1) Medium Demand (S2) High Demand )S3) Manufacture, d(1) -20 40 100 Purchase, d(2) 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P s1= 0.35, P s2= 0.35, and P s3= 0.30 Use expected value to recommend a decision.1. Decision Making Problem Solving ABC Manufacturing is trying to analyze the cost associated with three decision options and four states of nature. The payoff matrix for this situation is shown below All S are in thousands. State of Nature S3 S4 Alternatives s1 S2 A1 20 25 30 35 A2 40 30 40 20 A3 10 60 30 25 What decision should be made according to the following decision rules? (show work) (a) Optimistic (b) Pessimistic (c) LaPlace (d) minimax regret
- A decision table describes results associated with which of the following A) Two decision variables B) One decision variable and one uncertain variable C) Two uncertain variables D) None of the aboveDescribe how decision analysis is similar to and different from simulation analysis and scenario analysis (at least 75 words)Which types of decisions should the decision trees be used to address for?
- What is the final value of the decision tree?An electronics factory operates on four production lines: laptops, mobiles, desktop computers, smart boards, and there were three cases of demand (weak, medium, and high), and the matrix of returns was as follows: Laptops Mobiles Risk Desktop Computers Smart Boards High 40 45 35 30 Economic state Medium 25 15 30 20 1. The problem presented above is decision-making under Certainty Uncertainty Weak 10 5 -10 -5 Save All Answers Save and SubmitYour company must decide whether to introduce a new product. The sales of the product will be either at a high (success) or low (failure) level. The conditional value for this decision is as follows Decision High Low Introduce $4,000,000 -$2,000,000 Do Not Introduce 0 0 Probability 0.3 0.7 You have the option to conduct a market survey to sharpen you market demand estimate. The survey costs $200,000. The survey provides incomplete information about the sales, with three possible outcomes: (1) predicts high sales, (2) predicts low sales, or (3) inconclusive. Such surveys have in the past provided these results Result High Low Predicts High 0.4 0.1 Inconclusive 0.4 0.5 Predicts Low 0.2 0.4 c) Draw the complete decision tree, including the survey option. Explain where the values on the decision tree come from
- 9. A decision-maker has two alternative courses of action, A1 and A2. There are three possible states of nature, S1, S2, and S3. The table of conditional profits, as well as the probabilities for the states of nature, appear below. Based on this decision table, which decision alternative produces the higher EMV? States of Nature Alternatives S1 S2 S3 A1 10,000 20,000 6,000 A2 5,000 30,000 15,000 Probability 0.3 0.5 0.2 Part 2 The best decision is ▼ a. alternative Upper A 1alternative A1 b. alternative Upper A 2alternative A2 , with an EMV=$________(enter your response as a whole number).Why would a manager prefer a decision tree instead of a decision table?Below pay-off was generated for your investment options. From this pay-off table determine the best decision using decision making under uncertainty: a.Maximax b.Maximin c.Minimax