An entertainment manager has to organize a concert and is offered the options of doing it outdoors or in a covered pavilion. The benefits will depend on the attendance of the public and this in turn on the weather, which can be rainy, cloudy or sunny. The expected results if you organize it outdoors are 10,000, 50,000 and 65,000 euros if the weather is rainy, cloudy or wave respectively. If the concert is held in a covered pavilion, the results would be 45,000, 40,000 and 35,000 euros for each climatic state. It asks: a) Configure the decision matrix. b) What decision should the employer make if he knows exactly that he will rain that day? c) What decision should the employer make if the Institute of Meteorology confirms that there is a probability of rain of 15% and of clouds of 30%?
An entertainment manager has to organize a concert and is offered the options of doing it outdoors or in a covered pavilion. The benefits will depend on the attendance of the public and this in turn on the weather, which can be rainy, cloudy or sunny. The expected results if you organize it outdoors are 10,000, 50,000 and 65,000 euros if the weather is rainy, cloudy or wave respectively. If the concert is held in a covered pavilion, the results would be 45,000, 40,000 and 35,000 euros for each climatic state. It asks:
a) Configure the decision matrix.
b) What decision should the employer make if he knows exactly that he will rain that day?
c) What decision should the employer make if the Institute of Meteorology confirms that there is a probability of rain of 15% and of clouds of 30%?
d) What decision will the employer make in an environment of uncertainty applying all the criteria you know and knowing that the optimism coefficient is 40%?
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