AD, M Moving Average Model (past 3 Weeks), A. B. Exponential Smoothing Model (a = 0.2) с. What is your sales forecast for Period 8 using A and B? Actual Sales Forecast Error Error| Error Period
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- V. Let's Explore / Let's Create 1. Discuss the other types of forecasting methods that financial analysts use to predict future revenues. 2. Are there any several other factors that may need to be considered that affects the sales forecast? RUBRIC Criteria Poor (3 Points) Fair (7 Points) Fair Good (10 Points) Good Deerq1(a)Imagine that you need to introduce a new gadget such as the Apple Watch. Determine which forecasting method is appropriate for projecting the future demand of such this gadget. b)ARIMA is mostly used to forecast future values using historical time series data, as we all know. Its primary use is in short-term forecasting with at least 38-40 historical data points and a small number of outliers. If we don't have at least 38 data points, we should consider using another strategy.It wouldnt let me take a screenshot of the table so I had to copy and paste it in here. My question is: How do you Calculate a moving average forecast using the last 2 and 4 dates of stay. What is the prediction for 7/1/2021 for each technique? Discussion Question 1 - 200 room hotel Forecasts MA 2 Errors MA 4 Errors ES (0.8) Errors ES (0.5) Errors Date Day of Week Rooms Sold MA 2 MA 4 ES (0.8) ES (0.5) AE APE AE APE AE APE AE APE 6/1/2021 Tuesday 123 6/2/2021 Wednesday 109 6/3/2021 Thursday 140 6/4/2021 Friday 199 6/5/2021 Saturday 179 6/6/2021 Sunday 140 6/7/2021 Monday 117 6/8/2021 Tuesday 132 6/9/2021 Wednesday 108 6/10/2021 Thursday 151…
- Q5) Monthly sales for a six month period are as follows: Month SalesJan 18,000Feb 22,000Mar 16,000Apr 18,000May 20,000June 24,000 Compute the sales forecast for July using the following approaches: (1) Four-month moving average; (2) Weighted three-month moving average using .50 for June, .30 for May and .20 for April;(3) Exponential smoothing with α (smoothing constant) equal to .40, assuming a February forecast of 18,000Q1) Forecasting is both art and science. Describe the situations where we use Qualitative forecasting techniques and quantitative forecasting techniquesconstants of .6 and .9, develop fo recasts for the sales of VWBeetles. What effect did the smoothing constant have on the forecast?Use MAD to deternline which of the three smoothing constants (.3,.6, or .9) gives the most accurate forecast. ~ (MyLab OperationsManagement also includes a shorter (brief) version of this problem.)
- Q3) Discuss Qualitative forecasting technique. Explain the situations where we use Qualitative methods. Discuss Delphi forecasting method and its challenge.Here are the errors associated with a particular forecast over the past five months, in chronological order: 2, 5, 0, -5, -10. Which of the following statements is (are) true? I. The forecast was too high during the fifth month. II. The mean error over these five months is -2. III. The forecast was perfectly accurate during one of the months. a. I only Ob. Il only O. Il only d. I and III Oe.I, Il and IIThe Fitter Snacker company sold 6,435 cases of snack bars in June of the previous year. They are expecting sales to increase by 3% this year. In addition, they are launching a promotional campaign in May, which they expect will increase sales in June by an additional 500 cases. April May Sales forecasting Previous year (cases) Promotion sales (cases) Previous year base (cases) Growth: Base projection (cases) Promotion (cases) Sales forecast (cases) June 6735 300 6435 193 6628 500 7128 Jan. Feb. March 5734 5823 5884 6134 6587 300 5734 5823 5884 6134 184 6287 189 3.0% 172 5906 175 177 6061 5998 6318 6476 5906 5998 6061 6318 6476 Calculate the sales forecast for June of this year that Fitter Snacker should use? Show all your calculation steps.
- Tools View Week 3 Bonus Activity- DEMAND FORECASTING CASE STUDY After reviewing the forecasting demonstration and looking over the slides, complete the following case activity and transfer your answers to the appropriate questions in the Canvas activity quiz. You have been hired as a demand planning intern for Hawaiian Island Creations (HIC). They want you to de- velop a forecast for their HIC Papanui style of sun- glasses. The goal is to determine how many pair they will produce to meet retailer demand in July 2021. During your first meeting, you were handed some data to work with and the product team talked about the company's upcoming promotional blitz to support Summer Break '21 in major vacation destinations. Month Forecast Demand January 2021 4.000 3,300 February 2021 4,200 3,900 March 2021 4,500 4,300 April 2021 4.800 4,200 May 2021 5 000 5.400 of 4 P Type here to search 立NING SYSTEM (ACADEMIC) Series forecasting for Business || The F-test used in testing the significance of a regression model is O a. Upper tailed test O b. Two tailed test O c. Lower tailed test O d. None OUS PAGEDaily time series data are collected forAetna stock closing values (referencedto 100). a) Use exponential smoothing withsmoothing constant 0.4 to completethe table. b) Forecast the next Aetna stock closingvalue and find the boundaries forvalues within 1 MAE of the forecast.t Yt Ft et1 4.09 2 6.073 5.404 7.485 8.31