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- I draw 5 cards from a deck (replacing each cardimmediately after it is drawn). I receive $4 for each heartthat is drawn. Find the mean and variance of my total payoff.a business owner is planning to strategies his company's growth, he can either buy , rent, or lease a new factory depending on how the business is doing. He was given the following payoff table based on whether the business is doing good or business is slow. Aletnative Business Doing Goood Business Slow Buy 90 -10 Rent 70 40 Lease 60 55 The probability of business doing good is 0.7 and the probability of slow business is 0.3. Using Lapace method, the strategy is: A. Do nothing B. Lease C. Rent D. BuyA. A company wants to produce a souvenir with a marketing life of six months. Uncertainty surrounds the likely sales volume as well as the fixed costs of the venture as shown below: Sales units Probability Contrn. /unit Probability Fixed cost K7 K5 100 000 0.3 80 000 0.6 60 000 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 Determine the expected value of the contribution K400 000 K450 000 K500 000 Probability 0.2 0.5 0.3 1.0
- 3. The manager for a manufacturing company must recommend whether to construct a large plant, construct a small plant or do nothing. He estimates the long-run profits in $ as follows: State of Nature Alternative Good Average Poor Market($) Market ($) Market ($) Construct a 100,000 35,000 -60,000 large plant Construct a 75,000 25,000 -40,000 small plant Do nothing -5,000 0 0 Probability 25% 50% 25% Solve using: A. Expected Opportunity Loss B. Expected Value of Perfect InformationEstimating Costs in an Uncertain Environment Many companies face increasingly unpredictable costs and revenues as the recession affects demand for products and the costs of materials andlabor for these products. Revenues and costs have fluctuated significantly in recent years for suchcost elements as fuel, labor, commodities (agricultural commodities, metals, etc.), interest, and rentexpense, among others. Dealing with the increased fluctuations requires cost estimation methods thatare more sophisticated and more frequently updated. The result is that companies are including intheir cost estimation additional independent variables. Moreover, these companies are updating theirestimation models more frequently. For example, Southwest Airlines updates its revenue predictionmodel on a daily basis.Required Consider Southwest Airlines and the following six key areas of cost for the company. Which ofthese costs do you think the airline must update most frequently?1. Flight crew.2. Fuel…The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): state of nature low demand medium demnad high demand Decision alternative s1 s2 s3 manufacture d1 -20 40 100 purchase d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. a. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favourable (F) or unfavourable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F|S1)=0.10 P (U|S1)=0.90 P(F|S2)=0.40 P (U|S2)=0.60 P(F|S3)=0.60 P (U|S3)=0.40 Decision tree leading to market study/ prediction of favorable…
- The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): state of nature low demand medium demnad high demand Decision alternative s1 s2 s3 manufacture d1 -20 40 100 purchase d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. a. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favourable (F) or unfavourable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F|S1)=0.10 P (U|S1)=0.90 P(F|S2)=0.40 P (U|S2)=0.60 P(F|S3)=0.60 P (U|S3)=0.40 Compute the probabilities by completing the table Sate of…The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): state of nature low demand medium demnad high demand Decision alternative s1 s2 s3 manufacture d1 -20 40 100 purchase d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. a. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favourable (F) or unfavourable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F|S1)=0.10 P (U|S1)=0.90 P(F|S2)=0.40 P (U|S2)=0.60 P(F|S3)=0.60 P (U|S3)=0.40 A.Compute the probabilities by completing the table Sate of…The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): state of nature low demand medium demnad high demand Decision alternative s1 s2 s3 manufacture d1 -20 40 100 purchase d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. a.Use expected value to recommend a decision. b.Use EVPI to determine whether Gorman should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand.
- Option 2: Raise prices by 50%. If this occurs, there is a 75% chance that an Entrepreneur will set up in competition this year. The board’s estimate of its annual profit in this situation would be as follows: 2A: With new competitor 2B: Without new competitor Probability Profit (Sh.) Probability Profit (Sh.) 0.25 150,000 0.5 200,000 0.5 120,000 0.3 150,000 0.25 80,000 0.2 100,000 Option 3: Expand the car park quickly at a cost of Sh. 50,000 keeping prices theSame. The profits are then estimated to be like 2B above, except that the probabilities would be 0.6, 0.3 and 0.1 respectively. Required: Draw a decision tree for the above problem, including all the relevant data. Using expected values analyze the decision tree and recommend the best option to the owners of the car park.Estimating Costs in an Uncertain Environment Many companies face increasingly unpredictable costs and revenues as the recession affects demand for products and the costs of materials and labor for these products. Revenues and costs have fluctuated significantly in recent years for such cost elements as fuel, labor, commodities (agricultural commodities, metals, etc.), interest, and rent expense, among others. Dealing with the increased fluctuations requires cost estimation methods that are more sophisticated and more frequently updated. The result is that companies are including in their cost estimation additional independent variables. Moreover, these companies are updating their estimation models more frequently. For example, Southwest Airlines updates its revenue prediction model on a daily basis. Required Consider Southwest Airlines and the following six key areas of cost for the company. Which of these costs do you think the airline must update most frequently? Flight crew. Fuel…In the table below ratings data on x = the quality of the speed of execution and y = overall satisfaction with electronic trades provided the estimated regression equation ŷ = 0.3402 +0.8922x. Brokerage Speed Satisfaction Scottrade, Inc. 3.5 3.4 Charles Schwab 3.0 3.1 Fidelity Brokerage Services 3.3 3.2 TD Ameritrade 3.6 3.5 E*Trade Financial 3.4 3.7 Vanguard Brokerage Services 3.8 3.6 USAA Brokerage Services 3.3 2.9 Thinkorswim 3.1 3.6 Wells Fargo Investments 2.4 2.4 Interactive Brokers 2.6 2.2 Zecco.com 2.7 3.1 At the 0.05 level of significance, test whether speed of execution and overall satisfaction are related. Show the ANOVA table. What is your conclusion? Source Sum of Squares Degrees Mean Square F (to 2 decimals) of Variation (to 4 decimals) of Freedom (to 4 decimals) Regression Error Total P-value is - Select your answer - We Select your answer - V reject Ho : B1 = 0, we conclude that speed of execution and overall satisfaction Select your answer - V related.