A) What makes a forecast optimal?
Q: 1. a.) What is forecasting? b. Explain the importance of forecasting for managers like you? c.) What…
A: Forecasting is simply analyzing and evaluating the past or present data to determine or predict the…
Q: Does a correct forecast prove that your forecast method was correct? Why or why not?
A: Forecasting is important as it helps a business in setting the correct level of inventory, set the…
Q: Refer to Problem 4.2. Develop a forecast for years 2 through 12 using exponential smoothing with a =…
A: Given data is Alpha = 0.4 Forecast for year 1 = 6
Q: advantages of forecasting
A: Forecasting is the technique that uses historical data as inputs to make informed estimates that are…
Q: What are some factors when preparing a sales forecast that would lead you to rely on one or two of…
A: 1. Decide your market position Here you need to characterize the particular regions or specialty of…
Q: (4-b). Use simple exponential smoothing with α = 0.6 to forecast the tire sales for September…
A: Forecasting sales refers to the prediction of future sales using previous data to estimate the…
Q: Explain what is seasonality and how forecast is done using data that has seasonality
A: In time series analysis, seasonalities are regarded as repeated up / down cyclic patterns in serial…
Q: Which of the following is used to describe the degree of forecast error? a. Median and Mode b. Mean…
A: Mean absolute percent error is the method to describe the degree of relationship between errors for…
Q: Which of the following measures of forecast fit may correctly be used to compare different forecast…
A: Answer as follows:
Q: Who needs to be involved in preparing forecasts?
A: The manager ultimately has the key responsibility to prepare the forecast. An organization should…
Q: It is a common saying that the only thing certain about a forecast is that it will be wrong. What is…
A: Forecasting is the process of predicting future demand values based on historical data. The…
Q: a. what are forecasts? b. what are the costs associated with forecasting, and with not forecasting?
A: Cost is the total money incurred to manufacture the products in the production system of an…
Q: A skeptical manager asks what long-range forecasts can be used for when the CEO ask her to prepare…
A: Forecasting can be defined as the technique which uses past data to estimate future events.…
Q: What are ways of managing a poor forecast?
A: A bad forecast presupposes that there has been a mismatch between the demand and supply as a result…
Q: Explain what assumptions do qualitative forecasting systems make
A: Qualitative prediction systems make the following assumptions:
Q: Compute a 3-month weighted average forecast for months 4 through 9. Assign weights of 0.55, 0.33 and…
A: Forecasting is a technique used to predict future outcomes on the basis of past data. There are…
Q: Identify one method that is used in forecasting and explain how it is applied.
A: Forecasting: It is a process of predicting future demand based on past values or demand and present…
Q: If the Tracking Signal for your forecast was consistently positive, what could you then say this…
A: If the tracking signal of the forecast is always positive, then it is bias and consistently too low.…
Q: 20- Forecasting is very important in predicting the future sales of a company. Can you identify the…
A: Below is the solution;-
Q: We have a new chief sales officer who is proposing that we should forecast in dollars, not in…
A: Salespeople are inexperienced with estimate exactness measures. They have no real excuse to be on…
Q: Daily high temperatures in St. Louis for the last week were as follows: 93, 94, 93, 95, 96, 88, 90…
A:
Q: What is meant by the term tracking the forecast? In which two ways can forecasts go wrong?
A: Tracking the forecast means comparing the actual demand with the forecasted demand. It is used to…
Q: Accuracy of forecasts. The manager of a large manufacturer of industrial pumps must choose…
A: Given data, Assume that each forecast has an average error of zero. Forecast Month…
Q: can I ask some help about our assignment where we are tasked to find a case study in a manufacturing…
A: Trend Forecasting is the process to know the future buying habits of consumers by researching and…
Q: Describe the six steps in a typical forecasting process.
A: Six steps in a typical forecasting process are: Determine the purpose of the forecast…
Q: a. They generally work best when combined with a quantitative approach
A: Qualitative research comes from open-ended questions. It collects data in a different way. Instead…
Q: Types of Forecasts that might be needed in IKEA
A: Let’s first understand the meaning of Forecasting and types of Forecasting. Forecasting can be…
Q: All the following are techniques used in quantitative forecasting except. A. Regression analysis B.…
A: Forecasting refers to the approach of making predictions on the basis of present and past…
Q: All forecasts are subject to error. Do you think topmanagers would be concerned about the effectson…
A: Forecasting is described as a tool that will allow the businesses in the budgeting process and also…
Q: Forecasting is an important guard against guess work in decision making. In light of this statement…
A: Every firm engages in a annual planning process for production where the marketing function provides…
Q: What is the distinction between forecasting and planning?
A: Forecasting is the process of identifying the demand accurately for future production planning and…
Q: sing data in columns A-C create a forecast using the Simple Moving Average method based on 10 weeks…
A: Forecasting means predicting in advance the values of future sales/demand by using different methods…
Q: guide with reasons for the company to use appropriate forecasting models.
A: Organizations use the forecasting technique to help them develop corporate plans and strategies. In…
Q: Describe List features common to all forecasts?
A: It is the process of estimating future demand using the present and past data. The demand is…
Q: Which type of industries would make the most use of short-range forecasts? Which would make the most…
A: Forecasting means predicting something based on historical data. Forecasting is used by the firms to…
Q: Which one of the following is considered a disadvantage of sales force composite method of…
A: The Sale Force Composite Method is a sale forecasting method wherein the sales specialists forecast…
Q: What is the concept of seasonality? How do we forecast based on seasonal data?
A: Seasonality of time series data refers to the phenomenon of recurrent up and down periods in series…
Q: What are the basic types of forecasts? What are their strengths and weaknesses?
A: Forecasting is the process of making assumptions of the future on the basis of past and present data…
Q: Forecasting is
A: Forecasting is the process of making forecasts based on past and present data and most usually by…
Q: What are the principles of the forecasting process ?
A: Forecasting is the act of extrapolating historical data to forecast future demand levels.…
Q: Which one of the forecasting methods is capable of handling large amounts of data and uncovering…
A: Forecasting: It is a method that practices historical data as inputs to make knowledgeable…
Q: All forecasts are built on one of three information bases: what people say, what people do, or what…
A: The рrосess оf gаthering infоrmаtiоn fоr а better understаnding оf the tаrget mаrket is…
Q: List down some of the factors that may affect forecasting? What is the bases of forecasting
A: Forecasting is a process that uses historical data as information to make informed estimations that…
A) What makes a
B) How would you asses the accuracy of a forecast?
C) Suppose you had two, or more, competing forecasts for the same variable. How would you make use of these forecasts?
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- The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building materials (which includes retail sales of building materials, hardware and garden supply stores, and mobile home dealers). a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?
- The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number of airline tickets sold by the CareFree Travel Agency. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b?The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?
- The file P13_28.xlsx contains monthly retail sales of U.S. liquor stores. a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?The file P13_02.xlsx contains five years of monthly data on sales (number of units sold) for a particular company. The company suspects that except for random noise, its sales are growing by a constant percentage each month and will continue to do so for at least the near future. a. Explain briefly whether the plot of the series visually supports the companys suspicion. b. By what percentage are sales increasing each month? c. What is the MAPE for the forecast model in part b? In words, what does it measure? Considering its magnitude, does the model seem to be doing a good job? d. In words, how does the model make forecasts for future months? Specifically, given the forecast value for the last month in the data set, what simple arithmetic could you use to obtain forecasts for the next few months?Do the sales prices of houses in a given community vary systematically with their sizes (as measured in square feet)? Answer this question by estimating a simple regression equation where the sales price of the house is the dependent variable, and the size of the house is the explanatory variable. Use the sample data given in P13_06.xlsx. Interpret your estimated equation, the associated R-square value, and the associated standard error of estimate.