A car repair can be performed either on time or late, and either satisfactoryily or unsatisfactorily. The probability of a repair being on time and satisfactory is 0.26. The probability of a repair being on time is 0.74. The probability of a repair being satisfactory is 0.41. What is the probabilityof a repair being late and unsatisfactory?
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A car repair can be performed either on time or late, and either satisfactoryily or unsatisfactorily. The probability of a repair being on time and satisfactory is 0.26. The probability of a repair being on time is 0.74. The probability of a repair being satisfactory is 0.41. What is the probabilityof a repair being late and unsatisfactory?
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- At the beginning of each week, a machine is in one of four conditions: 1 = excellent; 2 = good; 3 = average; 4 = bad. The weekly revenue earned by a machine in state 1, 2, 3, or 4 is 100, 90, 50, or 10, respectively. After observing the condition of the machine at the beginning of the week, the company has the option, for a cost of 200, of instantaneously replacing the machine with an excellent machine. The quality of the machine deteriorates over time, as shown in the file P10 41.xlsx. Four maintenance policies are under consideration: Policy 1: Never replace a machine. Policy 2: Immediately replace a bad machine. Policy 3: Immediately replace a bad or average machine. Policy 4: Immediately replace a bad, average, or good machine. Simulate each of these policies for 50 weeks (using at least 250 iterations each) to determine the policy that maximizes expected weekly profit. Assume that the machine at the beginning of week 1 is excellent.7. Assume that there is a 9% rate of disk drive failure in a year. a. If all your computer data is stored on a hard disk drive with a copy stored on a second hard disk drive, what is the probability that during a year, you can avoid catastrophe with at least one working drive? b. If copies of all your computer data are stored on three independent hard disk drives, what is the probability that during a year, you can avoid catastrophe with at least one working drive? a. With two hard disk drives, the probability that catastrophe can be avoided is nothing. (Round to four decimal places as needed.)A factory has a frequency of breakdown of their machine per month as shown in table below and the cost of breakdown remains the same but the cost of preventive maintenance becomes ksh 1250 per month, and given that if preventive maintenance is performed, probability of a machine breakdown is negligible. Determine whether the engineer should use preventive maintenance or would it be cheaper to repair the machine when it breakdown. Frequency of breakdown of machine per month Number of breakdown 0 1 2 3 Frequency 20 30 40 10
- A hospital has three independent fire alarm systems, with reliabilities of .95, .97, and .99. In the event of a fire, what is the probability that a warning would be given?Sarah Chang is the owner of a small electronics company. In six months, a proposal is due for an electronic timing system for the next Olympic Games. For several years, Chang’s company has been developing a new microprocessor, a critical component in a timing system that would be superior to any product currently on the market. However, progress in research and development has been slow, and Chang is unsure whether her staff can produce the microprocessor in time. If they succeed in developing the microprocessor (probability p1), there is an excellent chance (probability p2) that Chang’s company will win the $1 million Olympic contract. If they do not, there is a small chance (probability p3) that she will still be able to win the same contract with an alternative but inferior timing system that has already been developed. If she continues the project, Chang must invest $200,000 in research and development. In addition, making a proposal (which she will decide whether to do after…Sarah Chang is the owner of a small electronics company. In six months, a proposal is due for an electronic timing system for the next Olympic Games. For several years, Chang’s company has been developing a new microprocessor, a critical component in a timing system that would be superior to any product currently on the market. However, progress in research and development has been slow, and Chang is unsure whether her staff can produce the microprocessor in time. If they succeed in developing the microprocessor (probability p1), there is an excellent chance (probability p2) that Chang’s company will win the $1 million Olympic contract. If they do not, there is a small chance (probability p3) that she will still be able to win the same contract with an alternative but inferior timing system that has already been developed. If she continues the project, Chang must invest $200,000 in research and development. In addition, making a proposal (which she will decide whether to do after…
- A manager is going to purchase new processing equipment and must decide on the number ofspare parts to order with the new equipment. The spares cost $200 each, and any unused spareswill have an expected salvage value of $50 each. The probability of usage can be described by thisdistribution:Number 0 1 2 3Probability .10 .50 .25 .15If a part fails and a spare is not available, two days will be needed to obtain a replacementand install it. The cost for idle equipment is $500 per day. What quantity of spares should beordered?a. Use the ratio method.b. Use the tabular method (see Table 13.3).A company installs new central-heating furnaces and has found that for 15% of all installations, a return visit is needed to make some modifications. Six installations were made in a particular week. Assume independence of outcomes for these installations.a. What is the probability that a return visit will be needed in all these cases?b. What is the probability that a return visit will be needed in none of these cases?c. What is the probability that a return visit will be needed in more than 1 of these cases?A product engineer has developed the following equation for the cost of a system component: C = (10P) 2, where C is the cost in dollars and P is the probability that the component will operate as expected. The system is composed of two identical components, both of which must operate forthe system to operate. The engineer can spend $173 for the two components. To the nearest two decimal places, what is the largest component probability that can be achieved?
- Howard Weiss, Inc., is considering building a sensitive new radiation scanning device. His managers believe that there is a probability of 0.6 that the ATR Co. will come out with a competitive product. If Weiss adds an assembly line for the product and ATR Co. does not follow with a competitive product, Weiss's expected profit is $40,000; if Weiss adds an assembly line and ATR follows suit, Weiss still expects $10,000 profit. If Weiss adds a new plant addition and ATR does not produce a competitive product, Weiss expects a profit of $600,000; if ATR does compete for this market, Weiss expects a loss of $100,000. What is the best decision based on expected monetary value (EMV)? What are the EMV and the expected value of perfect information (EVPI)? The best decision is to select the new plant with the EMV of $320,000 and the EVPI is $364,000. The best decision is to select the assembly line with the EMV of $180,000 and the EVPI is $66,000. The best decision is to select the assembly line…7. A piece of equipment has a lifetime T (measured in years) that is a continuous ran- dom variable with cumulative distribution function F(t) = 1 – e/10 – (1/10) e¯/10 for all t> 0. a. What is the probability density function of T? b. What is the probability that a piece of equipment survives more than 20 years? c. What is the probability that a piece of equipment survives more than 10 years but fewer than 20 years? d. What is the probability that a piece of equipment survives more than 20 years given that it has survived for 10 years? 8. For the equipment mentioned in Problem 7, a. Derive the failure rate function r(1), and draw a graph of the function. b. Without using the failure rate function, determine the probability that a piece of equipment that has survived 20 years of operation fails in the 21st year. c. Does r(20) accurately estimate your answer to part (b)? Why or why not?Howard Weiss, Inc., is considering building a sensitive new radiation scanning device. His managers believe that there is a probability of 0.35 that the ATR Co. will come out with a competitive product. If Weiss adds an assembly line for the product and ATR Co. does not follow with a competitive product, Weiss's expected profit is $50,000; if Weiss adds an assembly line and ATR follows suit, Weiss still expects $20,000 profit. If Weiss adds a new plant addition and ATR does not produce a competitive product, Weiss expects a profit of $600,000; if ATR does compete for this market, Weiss expects a loss of $120,000. a) Expected value for the Add Assembly Line option = $ $ 39500 (enter your answer as a whole number). Expected value for the Build New Plant option = $ (enter your answer as a whole number). %3D