9 438 18 482 a. Explain why an averaging technique would not be appropriate for forecasting. b. Use an appropriate technique to develop a forecast for the expected number of passengers for the next three weake
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- Q1) Forecasting is both art and science. Describe the situations where we use Qualitative forecasting techniques and quantitative forecasting techniquesQ3) Discuss Qualitative forecasting technique. Explain the situations where we use Qualitative methods. Discuss Delphi forecasting method and its challenge.22. Handy, Inc., produces a solar-powered electronic calculator that has experienced the following monthly sales history for the first four months of the year, in thousands of units: 23.3 March January February 30.3 72.3 April 15.5 a. If the forecast for January was 25, determine the one-step-ahead forecasts for February through May using exponential smoothing with a smoothing con- stant of a = .15. b. Repeat the calculation in part (a) for a value of a forecasts do you observe? c. Compute the MSES for the forecasts you obtained in parts (a) and (b) for February through April. Which value of a gave more accurate forecasts, based on the MSE? .40. What difference in the
- 4. The following data gives the number of battery sales by one of the leading automobile company over the period of last six months. Month Actual Battery Sales January February 39 44 March 40 April May 45 38 June 43 a. Forecast the sales for the month of July using a 3-week moving average method. b. Forecast the sales for the month of July using a 3-week weighted moving average, with weights of 0.5, 0.3 and 0.2. Using 0.5 for the most recent month. c. Compute the forecast for the month of July using exponential smoothing with a = 0.5. (Assume the forecast for January was 39 batteries) d. Compute the errors of the of the forecast based on calculation in c. с.Month Demand Forecast Error Abs Error 1 43 2 52 3 44 4 57 5 43 6 48 7 Sum Mean Bias MAD When using a 4 period moving average forecast (MAF): 1. What is the forecast for month 6? 2. What is the forecast error for month 6?Forecasting is critical in modern times. Business organizations manifested more concern with anticipating the future, and as a consequence, a number of highly successful consulting firms emerged to provide forecasting help for governments and businesses. You are required: iii. Identify the different levels that forecasting of business trends takes place. iv. Give 3 examples where long-range forecasting can be used v. Do you think forecasting is always correct and accurate? Discuss this assertion in detail
- 3. A mobile phone store owner wants to predict the demand for mobile phones in October based on the following historical sales data: Month- April May June. July August September Number of phones sold. 100, 140- 110. 150. 120. 160- a. What is this month's forecast using Naive approach b. Using 3-Month Moving Average, develop forecasts for October's demand c. Using 5-Month Moving Average, develop forecasts for October's demand d. When making moving average forecasts, is it better to use a larger time span? -1. Compute three-period moving average and forecasting errors for the following time series: Period (t): 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Value (Xt): 15 27 20 14 25 11 15 20 25 22 compute mean absolute deviation (MAD) and mean square error (MSE) and interpret the obtained results. 2. What do you understand by the analysis of time series, explain in details? Give a brief introduction of forecasting.q 1 An analyst must decide between two different forecasting techniques for weekly sales of roller blades. Based on the following data, answer the below questions. time Units sold 1 147 2 148 3 151 4 145 5 155 6 152 7 155 8 157 9 160 10 165 What's the MAD if the exponential smoothing technique with alpha 0.4 is used?
- Font Paragraph Styles Question 3 Consider the following from an estate agent's business nationally: Month Houses Sold Jan Feb Mar 380 360 390 Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct 400 390 380 394 454 460 460 Nov Dec 430 370 a) Calculate the three point moving averages (quarters) and seasonal variation for the above data b) Define moving averages and how they're useful in forecasting (use Harvard referencing) c) At races, your horse, White Rum, has a probability of 1/20 of coming 1st, 1/10 of coming 2nd and a probability of 4 in coming 3rd. First place pays $5,000 to the winner, second place $4,000 and third place $1,350. Hence, is it worth entering the race if it costs $1050?10 Community General Hospital finds itself treating many bicycle accident victims. Data from the last seven 24-hour periods is shown below: Day Bicycle Victims 1 8 2 14 3 8 4 14 5 18 6 15 What is the forecast for day 4 using a 3-period moving average model? (1 mark) (Round to two decimal places). 11 What is the forecast for day 5 using a 3-period moving average model? (Round to two decimal places). 12 What is the forecast for day 6 using a 3-period moving average model? (1 mark) (Round to two decimal places). 13i. Differentiate between independent and dependent variable in forecasting. The last seven weeks of sales at KC car dealership can be seen in Table 2 below. ii. Table 2 Week Sales 1 25 2 30 3 27 4 31 5 27 29 7 30 8 Use a three-period weighted-moving average forecast to determine a forecast а.