Statement_Ch_7

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University of Windsor *

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BSMM 8330

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Economics

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May 10, 2024

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docx

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200 cr ¢ Demand Forecasting in a Supply Chain 1. Consider monihl d for the ABC Corporation, as own in Table 7.3, | the monthly demand for Year 18 the static method for forecasting. Evaluate the bias, TS TABLE 7-3 Monthly Demand for ABC Sales Tot 78,000 89, 2. Weekly demand figures at Hot Pizza are as shown. Estimate lemand for the next 4 weeks using a 4-week moving aver, imple exponential smoothing with a te the MAD, MAPE, MSE and TS Which of the two methods do you prefer? Why? bias, n each case i Week Demand ($) 91 3. Quarterly demand for flowers at a [ wholesaler are as shown ecast quarterly demand for year 5 using simple exponen- ial smoothing with @ = 0.1 as well as Holt's model with b, MAPE, and MSE. Evaluate the quqy, MA forecast. = 0.1and B = 0.1. Which of the o methods do o, fer? Why - Demand ($000) vy
4 Consider monthly demand for the ABC Co poun in Table 7-3. For Poration as st the monthly demand for rmoving average,simple exponenil s 1o model, and Winter's model. In each case, evaluate the i Ts. MAD, MAPE, and MSE. Whic i you prefer? Why? For the Hot Pizza dat usin h forecasting method do 222 daa in Execise 2, compare th perfor- mance of simple exponential smoothing with 09. What difference in forec Sl o P asts do you observe? Which of the two smoothing constants do you prefer? 6. Monthiy demand at A&D Electronics for flat-screen TVs 4s shown. Estimate demand for the next two months «imple exponential smoothing with a are using 03 and Holt's model with @ = 0.05.and B = 0.1. For the |mp]s:”:’\yttlm‘e‘n— ial smoothing model, use the level at Period 0 1o be 659 (the average demand over the 12 months). For Holt's model, use level at Period 0 to be Ly = 948 and the trend in Period 0 to be T = 109 (both are obtained through ression). Evaluate the MAD, MAPE, MSE, bias, and TS in cach case. Which of the two methods do you prefer? Why? Month Demand (units) 1 1,000 2 1113 3 127 4 1,445 5 1,558 6 1,648 7 1724 8 1,850 9 1,864 10 2,076 w. . eden. 12 2191 7. Using the A&D Electronics data in Exercise 6, repeat Holt's 0.5and B = 0.5. Compare the performance of Holt's model with & = 0.0S and 8 = 0.1. Which combi- nation of smoothing constants do you prefer? Why? Weekly demand for dry pasta at a supermarket chain is as shown. Estimate demand for the next four weeks 11 to 14 usin week moving average, as well as simple exponential smoothing with @ = 0.2 Evaluate the MAD, MAPE, MSE, bias, and TS in each case. Which of the two methods do you prefer? Why? ——— Week Demand (units) model with a 8. five- 1 517 Chapter 7 ¢ Demand Forecasting in a Supply Chain 201 - Week Demand (units) 5 498 9. Quarterly demand for smartphones at a retailer is 3, and seasonal After obtaining initial estimates for level, tr factors, forecast quarterly demand for year 5 using Win model with @ = 0,05, 8 = 0.10,and y = 0.15. Evaluate the MAD, MAPE, MSE, bias, and TS for the forecast. C find values of a, B, y that result in a lower MAD or MSE - Year Quarter Demand 1 | 513 [ 932 ] 1,509 10. Quarterly demand for dishwashers at a white goods retailer is as shown. After obtaining initial estimates for lev end, and sea sonal factors, forecast quarterly demand for year 5 using Wi ter's model witha = 0.10, 8 = 0.10,and y = 0.10. Evaluate the MAD, MAPE, MSE, bias, and TS for the forecast. Can you find values of a, B, that result in a lower MAD or MSE? Year Quarter Demand
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